Monday, July 7, 2008

Speculators

Clearly we are in a bear market that is all we hear these days and you know what we are. But a bear market is not a recession. First off understand that I know of what I speak. I was a foreign exchange trader for 5 years at what at the time was the 2nd largest bank in the world. I have been in the trading room on in good days and bad days, mostly good I always hit my profits goals. Yes that is right unlike teachers I actually had to produce results to keep my job. Anyway back on topic we hear so much about the demon speculators and they are don't get me wrong. But you have to understand it is how capitalism works people place bets on future events. No different than Vegas baby. Sure they have all kinds of research and piles and piles of read-outs and charts but they can never, never be always right. Like my Finance 415 professor said after plotting chart after chart and page after page of data, can you predict the future? Sorry can't do it can only make an educated guess. What about Warren Buffet you ask? That is simple he bought some good stocks held them for a thousands years eventually they paid off. Also his company stock has never been split so he doesn't have to share the wealth it keeps getting more expensive he gets richer and fewer people can afford to buy it and bother him and his management. This is typical leftist elitism I guess some people are just more worthy than others. Oracle of Omaha my ass, Hoarder of the high plains maybe.

Speculators, traders, hedge funds, institutional investors can all manipulate the market even in today's high tech world. How you ask? Very simply the exact same way the media manipulates the news; spin the information into your favor. For example watch CNBC when they show the price of oil it is always next to the headline "America's Oil Crisis" call me crazy but there is no crisis we have all the oil we need. There are no gas lines, we are not hoping filling stations don't run out before we get to the pump. The price of gas is high, that is not a crisis it is supply and demand that determine the price. What we here in America tend to forget is there is a lot more world out there and they need gas too. Do speculators have some say in the price of oil or other commodities or stocks? Absolutely they do. I have seen traders in the foreign exchange market drive the market to make a profit they push hard for about 10 minutes in the direction they want the market to go. In and out, pump and dump some might say. So with that in mind ask yourself this question: Does it keep the price of gas down when the ENTIRE media calls this an "Oil Crisis" or does it make the speculators job easier to drive the price up. Thanks again guys you are doing a great job then you all just blame it Bush, he is just paying back his oil buddies and most Americans drink it down.

How much speculators add to these prices is up for speculation(pun intended). Some say as much as 40% I would say 25-30% it is significant no doubt because no matter what econ profs think markets are not ceteris paribus(all things being equal) they are imperfect you just have to factor that in when trying to understand how the markets work. What is bullshit is this Mortgage Backed Securities crap. It is a fake investment instrument a bundle of manipulated securities with no real value think a whole boat load of Enron's tied together. People didn't pay their mortgages and the market collapsed now the question is who knew what when? Because if these fuckers knew the market was tanking and didn't let anyone know or tried to make money off of it they need not be strung up by their balls. This is not speculation it is manipulation. Criminal if you ask me, thousands of people have lost their jobs over this and not just in the MBS market but we only hear about the stock and commodities markets. Because the agenda having leftist media hates George W. Bush and wants to blame it on him.

People; economics runs in cycles just like the temperature of the earth. The president is just along for the ride. He can hurt or help though. Jimmy Carter malaise speech, thank you Chris Matthews great speech; or Ronald Reagan tax cuts led to a big boom in the markets. Today though no matter what a president says or does the media will manipulate what it wants for it's guy Clinton could do no wrong even though his last quarter of his forth year had less growth than Bush 41 betcha didn't know that but you know "it's the economy stupid". Dubya can do no right we are in a recession , right? WRONG. Speculators are a problem like ants at a picnic. The leftist media are a problem like a rat infestation. How do you get rid of rats? That's right...

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